Cluster analysis of COVID-19 recovery center patients at a clinic in Boston, MA 2021–2022: impact on strategies for access and personalized care

Background There are known disparities in COVID-19 resource utilization that may persist during the recovery period for some patients. We sought to define subpopulations of patients seeking COVID-19 recovery care in terms of symptom reporting and care utilization to better personalize their care and to identify ways to improve access to subspecialty care. Methods Prospective study of adult patients with prior COVID-19 infection seen in an ambulatory COVID-19 recovery center (CRC) in Boston, Massachusetts from April 2021 to April 2022. Hierarchical clustering with complete linkage to differentiate subpopulations was done with four sociodemographic variables: sex, race, language, and insurance status. Outcomes included ICU admission, utilization of supplementary care, self-report of symptoms. Results We included 1285 COVID-19 patients referred to the CRC with a mean age of 47 years, of whom 71% were female and 78% White. We identified 3 unique clusters of patients. Cluster 1 and 3 patients were more likely to have had intensive care unit (ICU) admissions;Cluster 2 were more likely to be White with commercial insurance and a low percentage of ICU admission;Cluster 3 were more likely to be Black/African American or Latino/a and have commercial insurance. Compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 1 patients were more likely to report symptoms (ORs ranging 2.4–3.75) but less likely to use support groups, psychoeducation, or care coordination (all p < 0.05). Cluster 3 patients reported greater symptoms with similar levels of community resource utilization. Conclusions Within a COVID-19 recovery center, there are distinct groups of patients with different clinical and socio-demographic profiles, which translates to differential resource utilization. These insights from different subpopulations of patients can inform targeted strategies which are tailored to specific patient needs. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-023-01033-2.

Cluster analysis of COVID-19 recovery center patients at a clinic in Boston, MA 2021-2022: impact on strategies for access and personalized care.

BACKGROUND: There are known disparities in COVID-19 resource utilization that may persist during the recovery period for some patients. We sought to define subpopulations of patients seeking COVID-19 recovery care in terms of symptom reporting and care utilization to better personalize their care and to identify ways to improve access to subspecialty care. METHODS: Prospective study of adult patients with prior COVID-19 infection seen in an ambulatory COVID-19 recovery center (CRC) in Boston, Massachusetts from April 2021 to April 2022. Hierarchical clustering with complete linkage to differentiate subpopulations was done with four sociodemographic variables: sex, race, language, and insurance status. Outcomes included ICU admission, utilization of supplementary care, self-report of symptoms. RESULTS: We included 1285 COVID-19 patients referred to the CRC with a mean age of 47 years, of whom 71% were female and 78% White. We identified 3 unique clusters of patients. Cluster 1 and 3 patients were more likely to have had intensive care unit (ICU) admissions; Cluster 2 were more likely to be White with commercial insurance and a low percentage of ICU admission; Cluster 3 were more likely to be Black/African American or Latino/a and have commercial insurance. Compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 1 patients were more likely to report symptoms (ORs ranging 2.4-3.75) but less likely to use support groups, psychoeducation, or care coordination (all p < 0.05). Cluster 3 patients reported greater symptoms with similar levels of community resource utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Within a COVID-19 recovery center, there are distinct groups of patients with different clinical and socio-demographic profiles, which translates to differential resource utilization. These insights from different subpopulations of patients can inform targeted strategies which are tailored to specific patient needs.

Unsupervised outlier detection applied to SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences can identify sequences of common variants and other variants of interest.

As of June 2022, the GISAID database contains more than 11 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including several thousand nucleotide sequences for the most common variants such as delta or omicron. These SARS-CoV-2 strains have been collected from patients around the world since the beginning of the pandemic. We start by assessing the similarity of all pairs of nucleotide sequences using the Jaccard index and principal component analysis. As shown previously in the literature, an unsupervised cluster analysis applied to the SARS-CoV-2 genomes results in clusters of sequences according to certain characteristics such as their strain or their clade. Importantly, we observe that nucleotide sequences of common variants are often outliers in clusters of sequences stemming from variants identified earlier on during the pandemic. Motivated by this finding, we are interested in applying outlier detection to nucleotide sequences. We demonstrate that nucleotide sequences of common variants (such as alpha, delta, or omicron) can be identified solely based on a statistical outlier criterion. We argue that outlier detection might be a useful surveillance tool to identify emerging variants in real time as the pandemic progresses.

Unsupervised cluster analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicates that recent (June 2020) cases in Beijing are from a genetic subgroup that consists of mostly European and South(east) Asian samples, of which the latter are the most recent

Research efforts of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have focused on viral genome sequence analysis to understand how the virus spread across the globe. Here, we assess three recently identified SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Beijing from June 2020 and attempt to determine the origin of these genomes, made available in the GISAID database. The database contains fully or partially sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from laboratories around the world. Including the three new samples and excluding samples with missing annotations, we analyzed 7, 643 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Using principal component analysis computed on a similarity matrix that compares all pairs of the SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences at all loci simultaneously, using the Jaccard index, we find that the newly discovered virus genomes from Beijing are in a genetic cluster that consists mostly of cases from Europe and South(east) Asia. The sequences of the new cases are most related to virus genomes from a small number of cases from China (March 2020), cases from Europe (February to early May 2020), and cases from South(east) Asia (May to June 2020). These findings could suggest that the original cases of this genetic cluster originated from China in March 2020 and were re-introduced to China by transmissions from samples from South(east) Asia between April and June 2020.

Genome-wide association analysis of COVID-19 mortality risk in SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that colocalizes with P.1 of the Brazilian strain.

SARS-CoV-2 mortality has been extensively studied in relation to host susceptibility. How sequence variations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome affect pathogenicity is poorly understood. Starting in October 2020, using the methodology of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we looked at the association between whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data of the virus and COVID-19 mortality as a potential method of early identification of highly pathogenic strains to target for containment. Although continuously updating our analysis, in December 2020, we analyzed 7548 single-stranded SARS-CoV-2 genomes of COVID-19 patients in the GISAID database and associated variants with mortality using a logistic regression. In total, evaluating 29,891 sequenced loci of the viral genome for association with patient/host mortality, two loci, at 12,053 and 25,088 bp, achieved genome-wide significance (p values of 4.09e-09 and 4.41e-23, respectively), though only 25,088 bp remained significant in follow-up analyses. Our association findings were exclusively driven by the samples that were submitted from Brazil (p value of 4.90e-13 for 25,088 bp). The mutation frequency of 25,088 bp in the Brazilian samples on GISAID has rapidly increased from about 0.4 in October/December 2020 to 0.77 in March 2021. Although GWAS methodology is suitable for samples in which mutation frequencies varies between geographical regions, it cannot account for mutation frequencies that change rapidly overtime, rendering a GWAS follow-up analysis of the GISAID samples that have been submitted after December 2020 as invalid. The locus at 25,088 bp is located in the P.1 strain, which later (April 2021) became one of the distinguishing loci (precisely, substitution V1176F) of the Brazilian strain as defined by the Centers for Disease Control. Specifically, the mutations at 25,088 bp occur in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which plays a key role in viral entry of target host cells. Since the mutations alter amino acid coding sequences, they potentially imposing structural changes that could enhance viral infectivity and symptom severity. Our analysis suggests that GWAS methodology can provide suitable analysis tools for the real-time detection of new more transmissible and pathogenic viral strains in databases such as GISAID, though new approaches are needed to accommodate rapidly changing mutation frequencies over time, in the presence of simultaneously changing case/control ratios. Improvements of the associated metadata/patient information in terms of quality and availability will also be important to fully utilize the potential of GWAS methodology in this field.

A Structural Landscape of Neutralizing Antibodies Against SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain.

SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus responsible for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, has been spreading rampantly. The global scientific community has responded rapidly to understand immune correlates of protection to develop vaccines and immunotherapeutics against the virus. The major goal of this mini review is to summarize current understanding of the structural landscape of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) that target the receptor binding domain (RBD) of viral spike (S) glycoprotein. The RBD plays a critical role in the very first step of the virus life cycle. Better understanding of where and how nAbs bind the RBD should enable identification of sites of vulnerability and facilitate better vaccine design and formulation of immunotherapeutics. Towards this goal, we compiled 38 RBD-binding nAbs with known structures. Review of these nAb structures showed that (1) nAbs can be divided into five general clusters, (2) there are distinct non-neutralizing faces on the RBD, and (3) maximum of potentially four nAbs could bind the RBD simultaneously. Since most of these nAbs were isolated from virus-infected patients, additional analyses of vaccine-induced nAbs could facilitate development of improved vaccines.

Induction of Potent and Durable Neutralizing Antibodies Against SARS-CoV-2 Using a Receptor Binding Domain-Based Immunogen.

A novel betacoronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes severe pneumonia emerged through zoonosis in late 2019. The disease, referred to as COVID-19, has an alarming mortality rate and it is having a devastating effect on the global economy and public health systems. A safe, effective vaccine is urgently needed to halt this pandemic. In this study, immunogenicity of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of spike (S) glycoprotein was examined in mice. Animals were immunized with recombinant RBD antigen intraperitoneally using three different adjuvants (Zn-chitosan, Alhydrogel, and Adju-Phos), and antibody responses were followed for over 5 months. Results showed that potent neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) can be induced with 70% neutralization titer (NT70) of ~14,580 against live, infectious viruses. Although antigen-binding antibody titers decreased gradually over time, sufficiently protective levels of nAbs persisted (NT80 >2,430) over the 5-month observation period. Results also showed that adjuvants have profound effects on kinetics of nAb induction, total antibody titers, antibody avidity, antibody longevity, and B-cell epitopes targeted by the immune system. In conclusion, a recombinant subunit protein immunogen based on the RBD is a highly promising vaccine candidate. Continued evaluation of RBD immunogenicity using different adjuvants and vaccine regimens could further improve vaccine efficacy.

Machine Learning and Prediction of All-Cause Mortality in COPD.

BACKGROUND: COPD is a leading cause of mortality. RESEARCH QUESTION: We hypothesized that applying machine learning to clinical and quantitative CT imaging features would improve mortality prediction in COPD. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We selected 30 clinical, spirometric, and imaging features as inputs for a random survival forest. We used top features in a Cox regression to create a machine learning mortality prediction (MLMP) in COPD model and also assessed the performance of other statistical and machine learning models. We trained the models in subjects with moderate to severe COPD from a subset of subjects in Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) and tested prediction performance in the remainder of individuals with moderate to severe COPD in COPDGene and Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). We compared our model with the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, exercise capacity (BODE) index; BODE modifications; and the age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction index. RESULTS: We included 2,632 participants from COPDGene and 1,268 participants from ECLIPSE. The top predictors of mortality were 6-min walk distance, FEV1 % predicted, and age. The top imaging predictor was pulmonary artery-to-aorta ratio. The MLMP-COPD model resulted in a C index ≥ 0.7 in both COPDGene and ECLIPSE (6.4- and 7.2-year median follow-ups, respectively), significantly better than all tested mortality indexes (P < .05). The MLMP-COPD model had fewer predictors but similar performance to that of other models. The group with the highest BODE scores (7-10) had 64% mortality, whereas the highest mortality group defined by the MLMP-COPD model had 77% mortality (P = .012). INTERPRETATION: An MLMP-COPD model outperformed four existing models for predicting all-cause mortality across two COPD cohorts. Performance of machine learning was similar to that of traditional statistical methods. The model is available online at: https://cdnm.shinyapps.io/cgmortalityapp/.

A linear prognostic score based on the ratio of interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 predicts outcomes in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic tools are required to guide clinical decision-making in COVID-19. METHODS: We studied the relationship between the ratio of interleukin (IL)-6 to IL-10 and clinical outcome in 80 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, and created a simple 5-point linear score predictor of clinical outcome, the Dublin-Boston score. Clinical outcome was analysed as a three-level ordinal variable ("Improved", "Unchanged", or "Declined"). For both IL-6:IL-10 ratio and IL-6 alone, we associated clinical outcome with a) baseline biomarker levels, b) change in biomarker level from day 0 to day 2, c) change in biomarker from day 0 to day 4, and d) slope of biomarker change throughout the study. The associations between ordinal clinical outcome and each of the different predictors were performed with proportional odds logistic regression. Associations were run both "unadjusted" and adjusted for age and sex. Nested cross-validation was used to identify the model for incorporation into the Dublin-Boston score. FINDINGS: The 4-day change in IL-6:IL-10 ratio was chosen to derive the Dublin-Boston score. Each 1 point increase in the score was associated with a 5.6 times increased odds for a more severe outcome (OR 5.62, 95% CI -3.22-9.81, P = 1.2 × 10-9). Both the Dublin-Boston score and the 4-day change in IL-6:IL-10 significantly outperformed IL-6 alone in predicting clinical outcome at day 7. INTERPRETATION: The Dublin-Boston score is easily calculated and can be applied to a spectrum of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. More informed prognosis could help determine when to escalate care, institute or remove mechanical ventilation, or drive considerations for therapies. FUNDING: Funding was received from the Elaine Galwey Research Fellowship, American Thoracic Society, National Institutes of Health and the Parker B Francis Research Opportunity Award.

Unsupervised cluster analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicates that recent (June 2020) cases in Beijing are from a genetic subgroup that consists of mostly European and South(east) Asian samples, of which the latter are the most recent.

Research efforts of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have focused on viral genome sequence analysis to understand how the virus spread across the globe. Here, we assess three recently identified SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Beijing from June 2020 and attempt to determine the origin of these genomes, made available in the GISAID database. The database contains fully or partially sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from laboratories around the world. Including the three new samples and excluding samples with missing annotations, we analyzed 7, 643 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Using principal component analysis computed on a similarity matrix that compares all pairs of the SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences at all loci simultaneously, using the Jaccard index, we find that the newly discovered virus genomes from Beijing are in a genetic cluster that consists mostly of cases from Europe and South(east) Asia. The sequences of the new cases are most related to virus genomes from a small number of cases from China (March 2020), cases from Europe (February to early May 2020), and cases from South(east) Asia (May to June 2020). These findings could suggest that the original cases of this genetic cluster originated from China in March 2020 and were re-introduced to China by transmissions from samples from South(east) Asia between April and June 2020.